There’s an ongoing discussion about the role of Bitcoin that divides people into two camps: those who consider Bitcoin to be a currency and those who consider it to be an asset. The outcome of the discussion has an impact on its price, its correlation to the stock market (where other assets are traded) and government regulations. It is my view that although Bitcoin exhibits all the characteristics of a currency, it is mostly used like an asset (a risky one). But this role might change over time as Bitcoin will likely transition from being treated like an asset to being used like a currency. How do I know that? Because I witnessed the same transition of the US dollar in Venezuela.
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Four scenarios for the US economy: damnation, inflation, reinvention or Japan
Recently I’ve decided to rebalance my investment portfolio but to do it effectively I had to ask myself a hard question: What’s likely to happen in the US economy in 2021 and beyond? This analysis led me to four scenarios with different probabilities of happening: damnation, inflation, reinvention and Japan. The scenario that seems more likely will drive the distribution of my portfolio between risky / high growth assets and safer / low growth ones.
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